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Data

SBA Default Rates by Industry

What the Data Says

Across the 20 industries with enough seasoned loans to measure, 202 of 4,809 acquisition loans have been charged off: a pooled rate of 4.20%. The spread underneath that average is the useful part. The riskiest industry on this page charges off at 12.18%, and several land near zero. Same loan program, same buyer profile, an order of magnitude apart.

Read the ordering, not the level. These rates count loans already written off; loans still open can still fail, so every number here is a floor rather than a final tally. Underwrite a Deal reads a target's industry rate back to you beside its coverage, so the risk sits next to the payment it has to survive.

Charge-Off Rate by Industry

20 of 20
SBA charge-off rate by industry
Fitness and Recreational Sports Centers12.18%24 / 197$303,750
Snack and Nonalcoholic Beverage Bars7.81%10 / 128$350,000
Drycleaning and Laundry Services (except Coin-Operated)7.32%12 / 164$422,000
Full-Service Restaurants6.72%49 / 729$427,600
Offices of Chiropractors5.69%7 / 123$293,200
Limited-Service Restaurants5.58%35 / 627$370,000
Plumbing, Heating, and Air-Conditioning Contractors5.11%7 / 137$735,000
General Automotive Repair5.00%10 / 200$592,850
Landscaping Services4.51%6 / 133$500,000
Pharmacies and Drug Retailers3.68%5 / 136$1,100,000
Insurance Agencies and Brokerages3.47%5 / 144$760,500
Convenience Retailers3.45%4 / 116$476,500
Beauty Salons2.70%4 / 148$270,000
Home Health Care Services2.50%3 / 120$705,550
Beer, Wine, and Liquor Retailers1.98%8 / 405$742,500
Hotels (except Casino Hotels) and Motels1.44%8 / 556$2,677,000
Child Day Care Services1.28%3 / 234$701,500
Car Washes0.86%1 / 116$1,231,900
Gasoline Stations with Convenience Stores0.37%1 / 268$1,412,300
Offices of Dentists0.00%0 / 128$740,800

Charge-Off Rate by Franchise Brand

9 of 9
SBA charge-off rate by franchise brand
Anytime Fitness14.29%6 / 42
Subway5.31%6 / 113
Quality Inn3.70%2 / 54
The UPS Store0.00%0 / 50
Supercuts0.00%0 / 35
Super 8 by Wyndhan / Super 80.00%0 / 34
SmartStyle0.00%0 / 30
Days Inn / Days Inn by Wyndham0.00%0 / 37
Best Western - Best Western Plus - Best Western Premier- Executive Residency by Best Western- @Home by Best Western - GLo - Aiden - Membership Agreement0.00%0 / 32

Method & Source

Every rate comes from the SBA's loan-level 7(a) disclosure, not from a survey or an aggregator. The cohort is FY2018-19 change-of-ownership approvals (7-8 years seasoned): loans old enough that a failure would already have shown up as a charge-off.

Rates computed over recent loans are the common mistake. A loan approved last year has barely had time to go bad, so a recent cohort makes every industry look safe and makes the safest ones indistinguishable from the riskiest. That is why the numbers above deliberately exclude the newest loans, even though there are far more of them.

An industry needs 100 seasoned loans to appear here, and a franchise brand needs 30. Below that, a single default swings the rate by several points, and a ranking of small samples is a ranking of noise. Industries that miss the cut are left out rather than published with a number we would not trust. The pooled rate is computed from summed loans and charge-offs, so a large industry counts more than a small one.

Charge-off rates come from the seasoned cohort only; FY2020+ loans are too young to have defaulted. Rates are a lower bound (open loans can still fail), so read the ordering, not the level.

Source: SBA 7(a) and 504 FOIA data. Loans are limited to change-of-ownership approvals, which is what a buyer is actually taking on.

Each rate carries the loan count behind it, because a rate without its denominator is a rumour.