Chicago Target Scan
The Region This Scan Covers
IL, IN, WI (Chicagoland, NW Indiana, SE Wisconsin). 3,270 change-of-ownership loans closed in these states from fiscal 2020 through 2025, at a $608,200 regional median.
FY2025 in this region: 608 loans against a six-year pace of about 546 a year. Illinois 311 · Indiana 121 · Wisconsin 176
Most active lenders across these states: Live Oak Banking Company (254) · The Huntington National Bank (224) · Byline Bank (207) · Old National Bank (203) · Nicolet National Bank (94).
The Trades That Rank Here
1. Machine Shops / Precision Manufacturing
45 regional loans · $1,462,500 median · charge-off sample too thin to publish · no national comparison for this trade yet
The distinctly Chicago play: 45 acquisition loans at a $1.46M median, the highest-value non-hotel vertical in the region. The industrial base is real, the shops are third-generation family-owned, and customer relationships plus tooling create switching costs a service business can only envy.
Customer concentration is often severe (one OEM can be half the book), and equipment condition drives a capex forecast most buyers underestimate. Skilled machinists are the scarce asset; retention plans matter more than the machines.
2. Commercial Cleaning / Janitorial
34 regional loans · $480,000 median · 1.22% seasoned charge-off · $400,000 national median
1.22% charge-off against Chicago's enormous commercial and industrial property base. Contract revenue, minimal capex, and a fragmented owner base make this the most repeatable roll-up on the list.
Top-five customer concentration above ~40% is the deal-killer. Wage-and-hour and work-authorization compliance is where diligence actually earns its fee in this trade.
3. Electrical Contracting
28 regional loans · $700,000 median · 1.37% seasoned charge-off · $801,250 national median
1.37% charge-off, the best of any trade, and Chicago's union/licensing structure keeps the master-license pipeline tight. Commercial service contracts and tenant build-outs give it recurring character the residential trades lack.
The license is the business. Chicago's union environment adds a labor-agreement layer to diligence that suburban shops may not carry; know which you are buying.
Sourcing: IDFPR license rolls plus city/county electrical-contractor registries are the lead universe; verify tenure on company sites.
4. CPA & Accounting Practices
53 regional loans · $545,900 median · 3.16% seasoned charge-off · $500,000 national median
53 regional loans at a $546k median: the most financeable professional-services vertical in Chicagoland, with the oldest owner cohort of anything on this list. Recurring compliance work is about as sticky as small-business revenue gets.
Most states (Illinois included) require CPA-majority ownership, which disqualifies most searchers from buying one outright. Structure around a licensed partner or skip the vertical; do not discover this after the LOI.
5. Home Health Care
41 regional loans · $709,000 median · 2.5% seasoned charge-off · $501,000 national median
2.50% charge-off with 41 regional loans at a $709k median, riding the same demographic wave as everything else on this list but with contract/payer revenue rather than one-off jobs.
Payer mix decides the value (private pay beats Medicaid). Caregiver turnover, EVV compliance, and 1099-versus-W2 misclassification are the three exposures that reprice these deals.
Sourcing: IDPH licensed home-services agency roll is the lead universe; most operators have thin web presence.
6. HVAC & Plumbing
82 regional loans · $609,500 median · 4.38% seasoned charge-off · no national comparison for this trade yet
The region's highest-volume trade by a wide margin (82 loans, $609k median), so financing is never the obstacle. Included for that reason, but ranked below the safer verticals deliberately.
The honest read: HVAC/plumbing charges off at 4.38%, more than three times janitorial and electrical. It is beloved in ETA circles and priced accordingly. Buy the one with a real maintenance-agreement base, not the install-heavy shop.
The Other Regions Scanned
The same loan evidence picks different winners near different cities, which is the point of scanning regions instead of averaging the country. What repeats across all three is on the scan index, with the method and the source behind every figure here.
Method & Source
Computed from the SBA 7(a) FOIA loan-level file, change-of-ownership approvals FY2020-25; charge-off rates from the FY2018-19 seasoned cohort. Rankings weigh loans closed in this region's states, median loan size at searcher scale, and survival. Charge-off rates are a lower bound on a seasoned cohort, so read the ordering, not the level. The full method, and what the three scans agree on, are on the scan index.