Metro Target Scans
New York City
NY, NJ, CT (Hudson Valley, Long Island, North Jersey, Fairfield). 2,226 change-of-ownership loans closed in these states from fiscal 2020 through 2025, at a $660,000 regional median.
1. Commercial Cleaning / Janitorial
30 regional loans · $500,000 median · 1.22% seasoned charge-off
The safest vertical in the entire dataset that also has real regional scale: 1.22% charge-off, contract revenue, and the densest commercial real-estate base in the country to sell into. Unglamorous, which is exactly why it stays cheap and fragmented.
Customer concentration is the deal-killer: a top-five that exceeds ~40% of revenue prices very differently. Labor compliance (I-9, wage-and-hour) is the diligence landmine in this trade.
Sourcing: Weak web presence is normal here. Source through BOMA/IREM property-manager contacts and building-services associations rather than Google.
2. Funeral Homes
37 regional loans · $1,150,000 median · 1.32% seasoned charge-off
The strongest moat available at searcher scale: licensure, real estate, and a century of local trust that cannot be rebuilt by a competitor. 1.32% charge-off and a $1.15M regional median, with a wave of third-generation owners aging out.
Cremation is compressing revenue per case industry-wide. Pre-need trust accounts must be verified to the dollar; a shortfall is a liability you inherit. Most states require a licensed funeral director on staff.
3. Child Day Care Centers
48 regional loans · $950,000 median · 1.28% seasoned charge-off
1.28% charge-off, 48 regional loans, and a $950k median: licensed capacity is a hard ceiling on supply, which is what makes enrollment durable. Tri-state demand and licensing scarcity do the pricing work.
Licensed capacity, staff-to-child ratios, and enrollment (target 80%+) are the three numbers. Director credentialing transfers are a common closing delay.
Sourcing: Use state licensing rolls (NY OCFS, NJ DCF, CT OEC) as the lead universe; they publish licensed centers with capacity, which web search cannot give you.
4. Independent Insurance Agencies
49 regional loans · $1,038,000 median · 3.47% seasoned charge-off
The most acquisition-financed white-collar business in the region (49 loans, $1.04M median) and the purest recurring-revenue model on this list: renewal commissions are the multiple. Retiring principals are abundant in NJ and Long Island.
Carrier appointments require consent to transfer and can be lost in a change of control. Retention rate IS the valuation; contingent commissions should be haircut, not capitalized.
5. Electrical Contracting
22 regional loans · $650,000 median · 1.37% seasoned charge-off
The best-performing trade in the risk data (1.37% charge-off, versus 4.38% for HVAC/plumbing) because the master-license pipeline is genuinely scarce in the Northeast. Commercial service and maintenance contracts make it stickier than it looks.
The master electrician license is the business. If the seller is the license-holder, the entire deal hinges on a qualifier arrangement or your own licensing path; confirm the plan in writing before the LOI.
Sourcing: State/municipal master-license rolls (NYC DOB, NJ DCA) are the real lead universe; cross-reference against company sites for tenure.
6. Pest Control
18 regional loans · $520,000 median · charge-off sample too thin to publish
Route density plus recurring contracts, in a metro where the pest problem is permanent. Not a top-volume vertical in the loan data, but the recurring-revenue quality and tri-state consolidator activity make it a live roll-up lane.
Applicator licenses are personal to technicians, not the entity. Termite/WDI warranty tails are an inherited liability; price them.
Chicago
IL, IN, WI (Chicagoland, NW Indiana, SE Wisconsin). 3,270 change-of-ownership loans closed in these states from fiscal 2020 through 2025, at a $608,200 regional median.
1. Machine Shops / Precision Manufacturing
45 regional loans · $1,462,500 median · charge-off sample too thin to publish
The distinctly Chicago play: 45 acquisition loans at a $1.46M median, the highest-value non-hotel vertical in the region. The industrial base is real, the shops are third-generation family-owned, and customer relationships plus tooling create switching costs a service business can only envy.
Customer concentration is often severe (one OEM can be half the book), and equipment condition drives a capex forecast most buyers underestimate. Skilled machinists are the scarce asset; retention plans matter more than the machines.
2. Commercial Cleaning / Janitorial
34 regional loans · $480,000 median · 1.22% seasoned charge-off
1.22% charge-off against Chicago's enormous commercial and industrial property base. Contract revenue, minimal capex, and a fragmented owner base make this the most repeatable roll-up on the list.
Top-five customer concentration above ~40% is the deal-killer. Wage-and-hour and work-authorization compliance is where diligence actually earns its fee in this trade.
3. Electrical Contracting
28 regional loans · $700,000 median · 1.37% seasoned charge-off
1.37% charge-off, the best of any trade, and Chicago's union/licensing structure keeps the master-license pipeline tight. Commercial service contracts and tenant build-outs give it recurring character the residential trades lack.
The license is the business. Chicago's union environment adds a labor-agreement layer to diligence that suburban shops may not carry; know which you are buying.
Sourcing: IDFPR license rolls plus city/county electrical-contractor registries are the lead universe; verify tenure on company sites.
4. CPA & Accounting Practices
53 regional loans · $545,900 median · 3.16% seasoned charge-off
53 regional loans at a $546k median: the most financeable professional-services vertical in Chicagoland, with the oldest owner cohort of anything on this list. Recurring compliance work is about as sticky as small-business revenue gets.
Most states (Illinois included) require CPA-majority ownership, which disqualifies most searchers from buying one outright. Structure around a licensed partner or skip the vertical; do not discover this after the LOI.
5. Home Health Care
41 regional loans · $709,000 median · 2.5% seasoned charge-off
2.50% charge-off with 41 regional loans at a $709k median, riding the same demographic wave as everything else on this list but with contract/payer revenue rather than one-off jobs.
Payer mix decides the value (private pay beats Medicaid). Caregiver turnover, EVV compliance, and 1099-versus-W2 misclassification are the three exposures that reprice these deals.
Sourcing: IDPH licensed home-services agency roll is the lead universe; most operators have thin web presence.
6. HVAC & Plumbing
82 regional loans · $609,500 median · 4.38% seasoned charge-off
The region's highest-volume trade by a wide margin (82 loans, $609k median), so financing is never the obstacle. Included for that reason, but ranked below the safer verticals deliberately.
The honest read: HVAC/plumbing charges off at 4.38%, more than three times janitorial and electrical. It is beloved in ETA circles and priced accordingly. Buy the one with a real maintenance-agreement base, not the install-heavy shop.
Los Angeles
Southern California (LA, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, Ventura). 3,787 change-of-ownership loans closed in these states from fiscal 2020 through 2025, at a $640,000 regional median.
1. Residential Care / Homes for the Elderly (RCFE)
94 regional loans · $1,038,500 median · 0% seasoned charge-off
The single best risk-adjusted target in the entire analysis: ZERO charge-offs across 99 seasoned loans, 94 regional acquisition loans, and a $1.04M median. California's demographics plus a licensed-bed ceiling on supply make demand structurally durable.
The CA license (Community Care Licensing) is the asset and it does not simply transfer: plan the change-of-ownership application early, it gates closing. Staffing ratios and citation history are the diligence core; a facility with open citations is a repricing event.
Sourcing: Web search is the WRONG tool here: these are 6-to-15-bed board-and-care homes with almost no web presence. The lead universe is the CA Community Care Licensing facility search (CCLD), which publishes every licensed RCFE with capacity and citation history. That roll IS the pipeline, and its obscurity is precisely why the vertical stays cheap.
2. Home Health & Non-Medical Home Care
58 regional loans · $753,500 median · 2.5% seasoned charge-off
2.50% charge-off, 58 regional loans at a $753k median, and the same aging-population tailwind as RCFE but with a far lower licensing barrier to entry, which means more targets and easier closings.
Payer mix is everything (private pay beats Medi-Cal). California's caregiver-registry requirements, overtime rules, and 1099 misclassification exposure are the standard repricing triggers.
3. Commercial Cleaning / Janitorial
41 regional loans · $470,000 median · 1.22% seasoned charge-off
1.22% charge-off against Southern California's vast commercial base. Contract revenue, near-zero capex, and a highly fragmented owner base: the most straightforward roll-up mechanics available.
Customer concentration plus California labor law is the risk stack. Wage-and-hour class exposure and work-authorization compliance are materially more dangerous here than in other states.
Sourcing: Property-manager relationships (BOMA-LA, IREM) surface these faster than search does.
4. Pool Service Routes
26 regional loans · $350,000 median · charge-off sample too thin to publish
A genuinely LA-specific asset class: year-round pool density means monthly recurring revenue that behaves like a subscription. Routes trade on a multiple of MRR, which makes pricing legible and roll-up math clean.
Route density is the whole economic story: a scattered route with the same MRR is worth materially less. Verify accounts against bank deposits, not the seller's spreadsheet, and check chemical-handling compliance.
5. Auto Repair (General & Collision)
85 regional loans · $507,000 median · 3.5% seasoned charge-off
85 regional acquisition loans at a $507k median, the highest-volume trade in the region, and collision specifically shows a 0.00% charge-off in the seasoned cohort. Car-dependent Southern California is the structural tailwind.
Technician retention IS the business; a shop that loses its master tech loses its capacity. Order a Phase I environmental assessment (solvents, lifts, underground tanks) before you are contractually committed.
6. Veterinary Practices
21 regional loans · $850,000 median · 1.61% seasoned charge-off
1.61% charge-off, recession-resistant spend, and a consolidator-hot market that proves the economics. Included because the risk profile is genuinely strong, with a hard caveat attached.
California restricts veterinary practice ownership to licensed veterinarians. Unless you are a vet or structure through a compliant management-services arrangement with counsel, this vertical is closed to you. Also: PE consolidators have bid prices up, so you are competing on price with cheaper capital.
Sourcing: CA Veterinary Medical Board license roll is the lead universe; verify ownership structure before any outreach.
Method & Source
Computed from the SBA 7(a) FOIA loan-level file, change-of-ownership approvals FY2020-25; charge-off rates from the FY2018-19 seasoned cohort. Rankings weigh how many acquisition loans actually closed in each region's states (lenders lending in a vertical is the strongest evidence your own deal can close), median loan size at searcher scale, and survival. Charge-off rates are computed from the FY2018-19 change-of-ownership cohort (7-8 years seasoned). They are a lower bound (loans still open cannot yet have defaulted), so read the ordering, not the absolute level. License moats draw on the ownership-rules matrix.