New York City Target Scan
The Region This Scan Covers
NY, NJ, CT (Hudson Valley, Long Island, North Jersey, Fairfield). 2,226 change-of-ownership loans closed in these states from fiscal 2020 through 2025, at a $660,000 regional median.
FY2025 in this region: 505 loans against a six-year pace of about 371 a year. New York 233 · New Jersey 191 · Connecticut 81
Most active lenders across these states: Live Oak Banking Company (285) · Manufacturers and Traders Trust Company (199) · Peapack Private Bank and Trust (61) · Beacon Bank and Trust (59) · New York Business Development Corporation (46).
The Trades That Rank Here
1. Commercial Cleaning / Janitorial
30 regional loans · $500,000 median · 1.22% seasoned charge-off · $400,000 national median
The safest vertical in the entire dataset that also has real regional scale: 1.22% charge-off, contract revenue, and the densest commercial real-estate base in the country to sell into. Unglamorous, which is exactly why it stays cheap and fragmented.
Customer concentration is the deal-killer: a top-five that exceeds ~40% of revenue prices very differently. Labor compliance (I-9, wage-and-hour) is the diligence landmine in this trade.
Sourcing: Weak web presence is normal here. Source through BOMA/IREM property-manager contacts and building-services associations rather than Google.
2. Funeral Homes
37 regional loans · $1,150,000 median · 1.32% seasoned charge-off · $1,270,800 national median
The strongest moat available at searcher scale: licensure, real estate, and a century of local trust that cannot be rebuilt by a competitor. 1.32% charge-off and a $1.15M regional median, with a wave of third-generation owners aging out.
Cremation is compressing revenue per case industry-wide. Pre-need trust accounts must be verified to the dollar; a shortfall is a liability you inherit. Most states require a licensed funeral director on staff.
3. Child Day Care Centers
48 regional loans · $950,000 median · 1.28% seasoned charge-off · $701,500 national median
1.28% charge-off, 48 regional loans, and a $950k median: licensed capacity is a hard ceiling on supply, which is what makes enrollment durable. Tri-state demand and licensing scarcity do the pricing work.
Licensed capacity, staff-to-child ratios, and enrollment (target 80%+) are the three numbers. Director credentialing transfers are a common closing delay.
Sourcing: Use state licensing rolls (NY OCFS, NJ DCF, CT OEC) as the lead universe; they publish licensed centers with capacity, which web search cannot give you.
4. Independent Insurance Agencies
49 regional loans · $1,038,000 median · 3.47% seasoned charge-off · $760,500 national median
The most acquisition-financed white-collar business in the region (49 loans, $1.04M median) and the purest recurring-revenue model on this list: renewal commissions are the multiple. Retiring principals are abundant in NJ and Long Island.
Carrier appointments require consent to transfer and can be lost in a change of control. Retention rate IS the valuation; contingent commissions should be haircut, not capitalized.
5. Electrical Contracting
22 regional loans · $650,000 median · 1.37% seasoned charge-off · $801,250 national median
The best-performing trade in the risk data (1.37% charge-off, versus 4.38% for HVAC/plumbing) because the master-license pipeline is genuinely scarce in the Northeast. Commercial service and maintenance contracts make it stickier than it looks.
The master electrician license is the business. If the seller is the license-holder, the entire deal hinges on a qualifier arrangement or your own licensing path; confirm the plan in writing before the LOI.
Sourcing: State/municipal master-license rolls (NYC DOB, NJ DCA) are the real lead universe; cross-reference against company sites for tenure.
6. Pest Control
18 regional loans · $520,000 median · charge-off sample too thin to publish · $402,500 national median
Route density plus recurring contracts, in a metro where the pest problem is permanent. Not a top-volume vertical in the loan data, but the recurring-revenue quality and tri-state consolidator activity make it a live roll-up lane.
Applicator licenses are personal to technicians, not the entity. Termite/WDI warranty tails are an inherited liability; price them.
The Other Regions Scanned
The same loan evidence picks different winners near different cities, which is the point of scanning regions instead of averaging the country. What repeats across all three is on the scan index, with the method and the source behind every figure here.
Method & Source
Computed from the SBA 7(a) FOIA loan-level file, change-of-ownership approvals FY2020-25; charge-off rates from the FY2018-19 seasoned cohort. Rankings weigh loans closed in this region's states, median loan size at searcher scale, and survival. Charge-off rates are a lower bound on a seasoned cohort, so read the ordering, not the level. The full method, and what the three scans agree on, are on the scan index.