The Big Question
What Happens If the Business Fails?
How Often It Actually Happens
This is the question that stops people, and almost nobody in the field answers it with a number. Here is one. Across the fy2018-19 change-of-ownership approvals (7-8 years seasoned), 202 of 4,809 loans have charged off, which is 4.2%, or about one in 24.
Read that as a floor rather than a verdict. It counts only loans old enough to have failed, so newer cohorts are missing, and a loan that is struggling today has not charged off yet. It also pools every trade together, and the spread between trades is wide enough that the pooled figure is the wrong number for any particular deal. The rate by industry is the one to read once you know what you are buying.
What the number is good for is calibration. Roughly nineteen in twenty of these loans did not charge off, and the ones that did were not evenly distributed across industries or across deal sizes.
What the Guarantee Actually Reaches
An SBA loan comes with a personal guarantee, which means the debt does not stop at the business. If the company cannot pay, the lender can pursue you personally for what is left after the collateral is sold, and that remainder has a name: deficiency.
The house question is the one people ask last and worry about first. If you have equity in a home, an SBA lender will usually take a lien on it as additional collateral, which is a different thing from losing it: a lien means the debt is secured against the house, and the house is at risk only if the loan fails and the business collateral does not cover it. Ask any lender directly whether they will take a lien on your residence and at what equity threshold, because the answer varies and it is a question you are entitled to have answered before you apply.
Two things the guarantee does not reach. It does not survive as a claim on the seller, who is out at closing unless a note keeps them in. And it is not unlimited in the sense people fear: a lender pursues what it is owed, not a penalty, and what it is owed shrinks with every payment made.
The Mechanism Is Thin Earnings
Deals that fail rarely fail because the buyer was unlucky. They fail because the earnings could not carry the debt, and that was usually visible before signing. A business earning close to the debt service has no room for a bad quarter, a lost customer, or the working capital nobody budgeted, and the first of those arrives sooner than anyone plans for.
That is the reasoning behind the $500k earnings floor this site is written around. Below it, the arithmetic leaves nothing for the owner after debt service and a salary, so the deal depends on everything going right. Run the numbers on any specific deal in the SBA Acquisition Calculator, which shows the earnings a deal needs against the coverage lenders screen for, and then in Underwrite a Deal for the full picture.
What You Can Fix Before You Sign
Every real lever is on this side of the signature, which is the practical answer to the fear. Buy earnings with room in them rather than a price you can just about carry. Structure part of the price as a seller note, ideally on standby, so the seller carries some of the risk that their numbers were right. Keep a working capital reserve that is not the last of your cash. And read the charge-off rate for your trade before you fall in love with a specific deal, because it varies more by industry than by anything you will do as an operator in year one.
Insurance covers part of the exposure rather than all of it. Two reviewed providers write cover against a share of the personal guarantee, and both are listed with what they actually cover in the insurance category. Price it while you are still choosing a lender rather than in the week before closing.