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Acquisition Projections Builder

Five Years, Year by Year

Year-1 DSCR

2

After the owner salary, the lender convention

Weakest-Year DSCR

2

The year a lender asks about first

Stressed at +2 Points

1.84

Weakest-year coverage if the floating rate steps up; lenders run this before approving

Free Cash, 5 Years

$995,284

After salary, debt, and the capex reserve

The weakest year clears the 1.25 lenders commonly screen at, and holds it through a 2-point rate step. That is the coverage question answered; the earnings assumption underneath it is the one still worth arguing with.

Projection by year: SDE, debt service, free cash, DSCR, and loan balance
YearSDEDebt ServiceFree CashDSCRLoan Balance
1$510,000$205,215$179,2852$1,262,744
2$520,200$205,215$188,9752.05$1,167,303
3$530,604$205,215$198,8592.1$1,062,909
4$541,216$205,215$208,9412.15$948,722
5$552,040$205,215$219,2242.2$823,824

Year One, Month by Month

Debt service is level while revenue is not. Pick the shape closest to the trade; the shapes are stated simplifications, not forecasts.

Months Running Negative

0

Months where the level debt and draw outrun the season

Deepest Cash Hole

$0

The working capital to have at close before the strong season repays it

Year one by month: seasonal SDE, level debt service, owner draw and capex reserve, net, and cumulative cash
MonthSDEDebtDraw + CapexNetCumulative
1$42,500$17,101$10,458$14,940$14,940
2$42,500$17,101$10,458$14,940$29,881
3$42,500$17,101$10,458$14,940$44,821
4$42,500$17,101$10,458$14,940$59,762
5$42,500$17,101$10,458$14,940$74,702
6$42,500$17,101$10,458$14,940$89,643
7$42,500$17,101$10,458$14,940$104,583
8$42,500$17,101$10,458$14,940$119,523
9$42,500$17,101$10,458$14,940$134,464
10$42,500$17,101$10,458$14,940$149,404
11$42,500$17,101$10,458$14,940$164,345
12$42,500$17,101$10,458$14,940$179,285

The Quarter, Week by Week

Lowest Point

$26,000

Week 1 of thirteen

Cash at the End

$38,000

$494,000 in, $516,000 out

Runs Out

Not this quarter

The account stays positive throughout

The account never goes negative, but week 1 leaves less than one week of costs in it. That is a quarter with no room for a late payer.

13 of 13
Thirteen weeks of cash in, cash out, and the closing balance
1$38,000$72,000-$34,000$26,000
2$38,000$14,000$24,000$50,000
3$38,000$48,000-$10,000$40,000
4$38,000$14,000$24,000$64,000
5$38,000$72,000-$34,000$30,000
6$38,000$14,000$24,000$54,000
7$38,000$48,000-$10,000$44,000
8$38,000$14,000$24,000$68,000
9$38,000$72,000-$34,000$34,000
10$38,000$14,000$24,000$58,000
11$38,000$48,000-$10,000$48,000
12$38,000$14,000$24,000$72,000
13$38,000$72,000-$34,000$38,000
The address carries the quarter, so the link reopens this forecast.

Weekly rather than monthly on purpose: a business can clear its costs across a month and still miss payroll in the week the loan payment and an insurance renewal land together, which is exactly what a monthly view averages away. The loan payment lands every fourth week and a two-week payroll in the odd ones, so read the trough as the shape of the quarter rather than as a date. If it goes negative, the first row of the year-one troubles is the move.

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